@article{oai:nuis.repo.nii.ac.jp:00002804, author = {Shirai, Kenji and Amano, Yoshinori and Shirai, Kenji and Amano, Yoshinori}, issue = {6}, journal = {International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information & Control : IJICIC, International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information & Control : IJICIC}, month = {Dec}, note = {We propose the production process with time delay as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in finance theory, which is a mathematical model of a mass-production process with a production delay. We also estimate the expected value and variance of the throughput of the whole period by utilizing Kalman flter theory, which is used for state estimation in control theory under the incomplete information is available for the whole period of the manufacturing process. Further, we propose an empirical equation,which represents a product value at the exit of the production process. For the theoretical verifcation, we present a numerical simulation.}, pages = {2101--2116}, title = {PROCESS-DELAY MODEL ESTIMATION AND RISK-AVOIDANCE}, volume = {14}, year = {2018}, yomi = {シライ, ケンジ and アマノ, ヨシノリ} }